The domestic crude oil market was far less exciting than last year. In the overall shock in the first half of the year, the international crude oil price was in the fluctuation range of 70 US dollars/barrel to 80 US$/barrel for most of the time. This narrow range of oscillation also made domestic refined oil The market is calm. As of the end of June this year, China's refined oil market has only adjusted prices twice, which is far from last year's 8 price adjustments. Looking into the second half of the year, industry experts believe that under the balance of multiple factors, the pattern of oil price shocks will continue.
The timing of the deterioration of the European debt crisis is undoubtedly a watershed for international crude oil prices this year. From the spot price of Brent light crude oil, from January to April this year, crude oil prices rose from $ 70/barrel all the way to 85 US dollars/barrel, quite irresistible trend. Some industry analysts said that in the context of global economic recovery, rising demand is expected to make crude oil prices close to 100 US dollars / barrel within the year.
However, the European debt crisis has caused the crazy price of oil since 2009 to stop. On May 3 this year, the international crude oil price plummeted after hitting a record high of $88.45/barrel during the year and fell to around $69/bbl on May 20th and May 25th. In just 20 days, international crude oil prices have fallen by nearly $20/barrel, which has also become the largest shock in the first half of the year. Since then, the international crude oil price has not yet reached the height of 80 US dollars/barrel.
"From $70 to $80/barrel of crude oil prices is the main theme of the international crude oil market this year. If the European debt crisis has not deteriorated further, it is expected that the US economy will continue to dominate international crude oil prices in the second half of the year." Beijing mid-term oil analyst Chen Yueqiang told this reporter Say.
Chen Yueqiang believes that the international crude oil price changes have regional characteristics. Since the United States consumes one-fourth of the worldâ€™s total crude oil consumed, the U.S. economy has a significant impact on oil prices. Taking 2009 as an example, the overall recovery in the post-crisis era drove the international crude oil prices soaring from the lowest level of around US$34/bbl to around US$80/bbl at the end of the year. Among them, the strong recovery of the US economy has played a crucial role. The important role. Since 2010, although the economies of countries such as Europe and Asia have experienced some instability, the U.S. economy is still slowly and steadily recovering, which forms a strong support for the international crude oil market prices. It is precisely because of this that international crude oil prices quickly rose to above US$75/barrel in June after signs of further deterioration in the economies of Greece and Spain.
Looking forward to the second half of the year, the adverse effects of the European debt crisis are expected to be gradually digested. After all, its regional economic problems are less fierce than the 2008 global financial crisis. What's more, once the international oil price falls below US$70/barrel, major producing countries will expect to reduce production and investment funds will also actively enter the market. Therefore, the international crude oil market has seen a limited fall in price and it is more optimistic about the upside.
However, on the other hand, with the exception of the euro area, the developed countries such as the United Kingdom, the United States, and Japan are also highly indebted, and global government debt warnings have been sounded. According to statistics, the current global debt is as high as 36 trillion US dollars, and the risk of the second bottom of the global economy remains unknown. More importantly, this worrying mood will trouble the rise in international crude oil prices. I am afraid that the shock pattern will become the most reasonable theme in the crude oil market this year.
According to statistics, the correlation between domestic fuel oil prices and international crude oil prices is over 90%. Judging from the trend of international crude oil, domestic refined oil products may rise or fall more or less, but the general trend is still similar.
Judging from the adjustment frequency of the domestic refined oil market, under the situation that international crude oil prices soared all the way last year, China's domestic refined oil products have been adjusted for 8 times, including 6 increases and 2 declines; this year, due to the international crude oil price shocks In the first half of the year, Chinaâ€™s oil product prices were adjusted only twice, in which price adjustments rose in April, and price adjustments fell in June. This last time also fully reflects the true status quo of international crude oil price fluctuations within a narrow range.
"Regardless of how strong China's economic recovery is, it is impossible for the domestic fuel oil price fluctuations to get rid of the influence of international factors. A one-on-one fall in April and June is also the result of the impact of the European debt crisis. Therefore, the international oil price shock pattern Next, it is expected that in the second half of the year, the frequency of adjustment of refined oil products in China will still be lower than last year, said Chen Yueqiang.
Obviously, at present, China's price adjustment conditions for refined oil products, that is, "22 days +4% increase or decrease," are still unable to fully reflect the ever-changing market conditions. The price increase in April this year has been separated from the previous adjustment by 5 months. In the past five months, despite the ups and downs of international oil prices, the domestic refined oil market has taken a stance. Looking into the second half of the year, the domestic oil price adjustment may still be more calm.
According to recent market observations, the refined oil price adjustment window has come in July, but the industry generally believes that the market price adjustment may again be stranded.
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